Showing posts with label financial goals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial goals. Show all posts

Compound Interest - The Power of the exponential - “N”

 


Albert Einstein is reported to have said that “Compound Interest is the eighth wonder of the world, he who understands it earns it and he who does not understand it, pays it”

Whether Einstein has actually said this or not, the statement is still a profoundly powerful one for those who aspire to make enormous wealth.

As per Investopedia - Compound interest is interest calculated on the initial principal, which also includes all of the accumulated interest from previous periods. In other words, Compound Interest can be defined as “interest on interest”, which makes the original sum grow at a rate much faster than the “simple interest” which is calculated only on the original principal amount.

The formula of compound interest is : A=P(1+r)n

In this formula - A is the Amount (Original investment plus interest earnings over a period of time), P is the original Principal investment, r is the Rate of Interest and n is the period. One need not be a rocket scientist to understand and appreciate that in the above formula, n is the exponential factor, the key component that adds value to the equation.

To build enormous wealth, it is important to understand and harness the power of compounding. It is important for an investor to understand that being invested in the market and spending more time in the market with the amount invested in it is essential to create wealth.

Most of us have seen a graph of how Warren Buffet’s (the world’s most successful investor) wealth has grown.

 

 

One can see the gradual growth of Mr Buffet’s wealth in the later part of his life. His initial investments have been accumulating at a slow but steady phase. After his age of 52 his wealth starts increasing at an astonishing rate. 620Mn at age 53, 1400 Mn at age 56, 2300 Mn at age 58, 3800 Mn at age 59, 17000 Mn at age 66 and so on.

The caption in the picture mentions that 99% of his wealth was earned after his 50th birthday. The secret of this growth after the age of 50 is undeniably the first portion of the time scale – i.e. the period between the age 14 to 50. These 36 years laid the foundation.

If we replace the components in the Compound interest formula with the figures from Warren Buffet graph, the thing that stands out is the “N” factor.

Is it possible for a middle class or a lower middle class Indian with a disciplined approach for regular investment to aspire for wealth like this? Can a middle class Indian exploit the power of N?

I would like to give an example of a friend who wants to set aside an amount of Rs 1,000/- per month, for his just born child. The goal is to build a corpus for the child’s retirement (at the age of 58 of the child)! He wants to invest Rs 1,000/- per month, growing the investment at 10% per year for the next 25 years. At the end of 25 years what ever is the enhanced monthly investment, his child will start contributing that much amount on monthly basis WITHOUT any further enhancement till the child’s age of 58. In other words the father will start with Rs 1,000 per month today, increase it to Rs 1,100/- per month at the 13th month, Rs 1,210/- per month at the 25th month, and so on till the 300th month (25 years) when the monthly investment would become 10,835/-. At this point, his child will start investing 10,835/- per month and would be continuing with this investment pattern WITHOUT any further increments, till his age of 58.

Between father and child, they would have over the period of 58 years set aside (month on month) Rs 54.70 Lakhs Principal. And at the age of 58 of the child the amount, @ 8 % compounded per annum, would have become Rs 5,14.04 Lakhs.

For investors who would prefer equity markets the corpus would become Rs 14,73.29 Lakhs @ 11% compounded per annum and Rs 40,19.55 Lakhs @ 13.68%
compounded per annum.

 (As per Investopedia - the average annual return of the The S&P 500 Index since its inception in 1926 through 2018 is approximately 10% –11%.

As per Economic Times - the Sensex has generated an annual return of 13.68% since its launch in 1986.)

 

About the Author 

Financial Goals

The word goal immediately brings to our mind’s eye a goal post as in a football or hockey game. 



Right from our childhood we are used to working with some type of a “goal” in most aspects of life. Starting any work with a realistic, specific goal is the first step to ensure that it gets completed successfully. For instance, in the case of a student it can be completing the school home work by a specific date, the nature and volume of home work is set realistically by the teachers depending on the average student’s capacity. For a home maker it could be completing a particular house hold work like cooking, within a specific time, the nature and volume of work depending on the number of members in the household. For a corporate accountant it could be completing the organisation’s financial accounts for the year within a target date. For the players in a game of football or hockey, the goal is to win the game by scoring more points than the opposition within the allotted time period.

Most of us are aware of SMART goals. SMART is the acronym for: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time bound. In all the examples given above one can identify the SMART components.


 

Having a goal makes us conscious of completing the job within a time frame. The “goal theory” can be applied in almost all the aspects of life. And this includes Financial Goals as well. In simple words a Financial Goal can be defined as any target that is set in monetary terms.

It is always much easier if we are able to identify the goal in advance. Some very common financial goals can be to have an emergency corpus, to come out of credit card loans (or for that matter any debt), buying own house, making a foreign trip, etc.  

Financial Goals can be classified into short-term, medium-term and long-term goals. Short term financial goal can be having an emergency corpus, medium term can be coming out of debt trap or making a foreign trip and long term can be buying a house or retirement planning.

Needless to mention the SMART components have to be made applicable to Financial Goals too. “Lots of money for retirement”, or “a foreign vacation in future”, or “a big house before I retire” are not SMART financial goals.

Instead “Rs 5 crores at the time of retirement at the age of 60” or “20-day Europe Tour with family in the summer of 2023” or “3 BHK apartment measuring 1200 Sq feet in Bangalore in a budget of Rs 1.5 Crores within 5 years” are proper goals.


 

As in the case of any other goal a financial goal has to Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timebound. Let us take one of the examples given above and analyse how an achievable goal can be framed.

In the retirement example given above the Rs 5 Crores goal can be easily achieved by a 30-year-old person who has another 30 years to go for retirement (see explanation in footnote $ below), but difficult or impossible for a 55-year-old executive / self employed person with negligible present net worth and not much income or receipts in the near foreseeable future. Similarly, for a family with not much resources at hand and with not much monthly surplus in hand (remaining after the routine monthly expenses); a 20-day Europe trip may not be possible in the next year, but they can certainly plan a 10-day vacation at Goa.

When it comes to Financial Goals it is important to be clear and sure about the facts and figures. When planning for a financial goal in a future point of time, near or distant, one has to factor inflation. This is true for all financial goals - higher education, house purchase, corpus for retirement, foreign vacation, etc. A college course which costs Rs 1 lakh per year today will cost Rs 2.14 lakhs per year, after 8 years at 10 % inflation rate. A house costing Rs 2 Crores will cost Rs 2.67 Crores after 5 years at 6% inflation rate. 


 

People normally overestimate their earning capacity in the short term and underestimate the power of compounding in the long term. For instance, there is always a tendency to take loan in the immediate future as a solution for buying a house, without factoring the cash flow issues one is likely to face immediately. However, when it comes to long term, they feel that accumulating a corpus of Rs 5 Crores or Rs 10 Crores is impossible or very difficult.

 

Footnote:

$ - A SIP of 6,500 per month with an annual step up of 10% at 12% return per annum would give a corpus of Rs 5.19 Crores in 30 years!

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